Nobel prize

I notice that Harold Pinter has won the Nobel Prize for literature. I also saw the other day a suggestion that the jury had delayed their decision amid reports of disagreement over making the award to Turkish author, Orhan Pamuk.
One sometimes wonders what non-literary factors weigh in the balance in these decisions.
For example, does the fact that Northern Irish poet Seamus Heaney recently won the award reduce the chance of winning of Northern Irish poet Paul Muldoon?